Astrophile: A scorched world with snow black and smoky

Astrophile is our weekly column on curious cosmic objects, from the solar system to the far reaches of the multiverse

Object: Titanium oxide snow
Location: The hot-Jupiter planet HD 209458b

There is something magical about waking up to discover it has snowed during the night. But there's no powdery white blanket when it snows on exoplanet HD 209458b. Snow there is black, smoky and hot as hell – resembling a forest fire more than a winter wonderland. Put it this way: you won't be needing mittens.

HD 209458b belongs to a family called hot Jupiters, gas-giant planets that are constantly being roasted due to their closeness to their sun. By contrast, the gas giants in our immediate neighbourhood, including Jupiter, are frigid, lying at the solar system's far reaches.

HD 209458b is also noteworthy because it is tidally locked, so one side is permanently facing towards its star while the other is in perpetual night. On the face of it, these conditions wouldn't seem to invite snow: temperatures on the day side come close to 2000° C, while the night side is comparatively chilly at around 500° C.

Snow made of water is, of course, impossible on this scorched world, but the drastic temperature differential sets up atmospheric currents that swirl material from the day side to night and vice versa. That means that any substances with the right combination of properties might be gaseous on the day side and then condense into a solid on the night side, and fall as precipitation. Say hello to titanium oxide snow.

Stuck on the surface

Although oxides of titanium make up only a small component of a hot Jupiter's atmosphere, these compounds have the right properties to fall as snow. But there was a snag that could have put a stop to any blizzards. Older computer models of hot Jupiters suggested that titanium oxides condensing in the air on the night side would snow – and remain on the relatively cool surface forever. "Imagine on Earth if you had no mechanism to evaporate water, it would never rain," says Vivien Parmentier of the Côte d'Azur Observatory in Nice, France.

Now he and colleagues have created a more detailed 3D computer model that shows that the snow can become a gas again as it falls and the temperature and pressure increase. Strong updraughts can then blow the titanium oxides back to the upper atmosphere. "The gas can come back on the top layers and snow again and again," says Parmentier.

Snowfall on HD 209458b would be like none you've ever seen. Though titanium dioxide is white and shiny, for example, the snowflakes would also contain silica oxides from the atmosphere, making them black. Since the atmosphere is also dark, snowstorms on the planet would be a smoky affair, the opposite of the white-outs we get on Earth. "It would be like being in the middle of a forest fire," says Parmentier.

Although the team studied a particular hot Jupiter, their model should apply equally to other planets of this type, suggesting hot snow is a common occurrence. Parmentier says we may have already spotted snow clouds on another hot Jupiter, HD 189733b, as spectral analysis of the planet suggests the presence of microscopic particles in its atmosphere.

David Sing of the University of Exeter, UK, who helped identify such particles on HD 189733b, says the team's new model goes a long way to explaining how titanium oxides behave on hot Jupiters. "We're pretty used to water condensing on Earth; there it is titanium because the temperatures are so much hotter."

Hot, black snow – now that would be something to wake up to.

Reference: http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.4522

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Projected 6.9m population basis for healthcare planning: Gan

SINGAPORE: Health Minister Gan Kim Yong said the projected 6.9 million population by 2030 in the White Paper will serve as a basis for planning efforts to ensure sufficient capacity in the healthcare sector.

He also said his ministry is adjusting its plans to be able to meet future healthcare needs.

Mr Gan stressed that the 6.9 million figure is not a target.

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Clinton's final day in job marred by bombing

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: Kerry sworn in, first trip likely to include stops in Egypt and Israel


• Clinton cites Turkey attack as example of challenges in the world


• Clinton visited 112 countries and flew almost 1 million miles in four years


• At 65, Clinton faces questions about whether she'll run for president in 2016

Washington (CNN) -- A final meeting with the president. A farewell address to the State Department staff. A terrorist attack at the U.S. Embassy in Turkey.

Hillary Clinton's last day as secretary of state on Friday seemed to be a microcosm of her four globe-trotting years as America's top diplomat.

The former first lady had a full schedule, as usual, meeting in private with President Barack Obama at the White House and then attending the send-off ceremony with clapping, cheering workers at the agency she led.

Those events were clouded by a suicide bombing earlier in the day in Ankara that killed the attacker and a Turkish security guard at the embassy. No Americans were killed or injured.

Hillary Clinton through the years

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Clinton traveled nearly 1 million miles and visited 112 countries in her quest as secretary to promote better understanding of the United States and its role in the world.

On the road with Hillary Clinton

However, her tenure will also be remembered for last September's attack on a diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, that killed Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans.

Amid the good wishes and emotions of Clinton's farewell, Friday's bombing in Turkey was a grim reminder of the continuing threats and challenges to U.S. diplomatic efforts.

"Of course we live in very complex and dangerous times as we saw again just today at our embassy in Ankara," Clinton told the State Department ceremony.

"I know the world we are trying to help bring into being in the 21st century will have many difficult days," she added. "But I am more optimistic today than I was when I stood here four years ago."

Standing in front of a sign that said "Thank You," Clinton told the staffers jamming the area that she would miss them and the important work they do around the world.

"I will probably be dialing ops just to talk," she said to laughter.

Clinton sent her resignation letter to Obama a few hours before her successor, John Kerry, was sworn in on Friday afternoon.

Opinion: Clinton, secretary of empowerment

"It has been an honor to serve in your administration and to represent our country around the world," the letter said.

"I am proud of what we have accomplished together on behalf of the American people and in pursuit of our interests and values. And I am more convinced than ever in the strength and staying power of America's global leadership and our capacity to be a force for good around the world," she said.

In what was billed as Clinton's farewell speech on Thursday at the Council on Foreign Relations, she said the United States needs to build "smart power" in a world where the levers of influence are changing rapidly.

American diplomats have to work with entrepreneurs and activists, use new technological tools such as social media and update the global and regional institutions that have dominated international affairs since World War II, Clinton said.

"We need a new architecture for a new world -- more Frank Gehry than formal Greek," she said. "Now some of his work at first might appear haphazard, but in fact, it's highly intentional and sophisticated. Where once a few strong columns could hold up the weight of the world, today we need a dynamic mix of materials and structures."

Clinton defends her diplomatic legacy

Clinton called the United States "uniquely well-positioned" to help construct that metaphorical global edifice.

"Those things that make us who we are as a nation --- our openness and innovation, our diversity, our devotion to human rights and democracy --- are beautifully matched to the demands of this era and this interdependent world," she said.

Kerry, who served nearly 30 years in the Senate, stepped down Friday ahead of his swearing-in as the nation's 68th secretary of state.

He was chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Democratic nominee for president in 2004, when he lost to incumbent President George W. Bush.

Kerry expects to take his first official overseas trip in coming weeks, according to a U.S. official who said stops would likely include Israel and Egypt.

Exiting State, Clinton looks to writing, speaking

Clinton, 65, now faces persistent questions about whether she will mount a second White House run in 2016 to break perhaps the highest remaining glass ceiling.

"Well I'm not thinking about anything like that right now. I'm looking forward to finishing my tenure as secretary of state and catching up on 20 years of sleep deprivation," Clinton said Tuesday at a global "town hall" forum in Washington.

Observers note her answer was a less emphatic denial than previous responses that seemed to rule out any possibility of reentering the political fray.

According to a CNN/ORC International poll conducted last month, 85% of Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party said they would be very or somewhat likely to support Clinton if she sought the Democratic nomination.

Clinton was considered a favorite in 2008, but Obama, who served with her in the Senate, got an early jump in the primaries. Clinton was unable to capture the momentum in a fierce political battle.

Despite the rugged campaign, Obama chose Clinton for his Cabinet and she embraced the role.

In a joint interview with CBS that aired on Sunday, Obama said that he believes Clinton's legacy will rank among the best.

"It has been a great collaboration over the last four years," Obama said. "I'm going to miss her."

Clinton touts 'smart power' in farewell talk

CNN's Elise Labott, Jill Dougherty and Matt Smith contributed to this report.

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Twitter: 250,000 users' data compromised in hacking attacks

#1157946: Twitter bird logo, social networking and microblogging service, graphic element on white / AP Graphics

Twitter said today that it recently detected a series of attempts to hack into user data, and that the attackers may have successfully absconded with some users' information.

In a blog post Friday afternoon, Twitter explained the situation, and the steps it has taken to fight off the hackers.

This week, we detected unusual access patterns that led to us identifying unauthorized access attempts to Twitter user data. We discovered one live attack and were able to shut it down in process moments later. However, our investigation has thus far indicated that the attackers may have had access to limited user information - usernames, email addresses, session tokens and encrypted/salted versions of passwords - for approximately 250,000 users. As a precautionary security measure, we have reset passwords and revoked session tokens for these accounts. If your account was one of them, you will have recently received (or will shortly) an email from us at the address associated with your Twitter account notifying you that you will need to create a new password. Your old password will not work when you try to log in to Twitter.

Twitter said in the post that a very small number of users were affected by the hacking, but it encouraged everyone who uses the service to ensure that they are practicing "good password hygiene, on Twitter and elsewhere on the Internet." Among its suggestions: using unique passwords of at least ten characters, including a mix of upper and lower case letters, numbers, and symbols. Based on attacks on other high-profile tech and media companies, Twitter also said it is recommending the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's recent advisory on disabling Java, among other precautions.

This attack was not the work of amateurs, and we do not believe it was an isolated incident. The attackers were extremely sophisticated, and we believe other companies and organizations have also been recently similarly attacked. For that reason we felt that it was important to publicize this attack while we still gather information, and we are helping government and federal law enforcement in their effort to find and prosecute these attackers to make the Internet safer for all users.

This article originally appeared on CNET under the headline "Twitter says 250,000 users' data compromised in hacking attacks"

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Gov's Handling of Sandusky Case Under Investigation

The newly-elected attorney general of Pennsylvania is going after the state's governor, Tom Corbett, who was attorney general when child sex allegations against Penn State coach Jerry Sandusky were first brought forward.

Kathleen Kane, a Democrat who was sworn in as attorney general on Jan. 15, said that she will name a special prosecutor in the coming days to investigate Corbett's handling of the Sandusky case. Corbett is a Republican.

The investigation will look specifically at why it took the attorney general's office three years to bring criminal charges against Sandusky while he continued to have access to children.

"Attorney General Kane will appoint a special prosecutor to lead the office's internal investigation into how the Sandusky child abuse investigation was handled by the Office of the Attorney General," Kane's office said in a statement released today.

Corbett's attorney general's office was first notified of the allegations against Sandusky in 2008 when a high school student told his mother and school that Sandusky had molested him. The local district attorney passed the allegation on to the attorney general, then Corbett. Corbett convened a grand jury.

Mario Tama; Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Jerry Sandusky Insists Innocence Before Sentencing Watch Video

Jerry Sandusky Sentencing: Why Did He Release Statement? Watch Video

Jerry Sandusky Claims Innocence in Audio Statement Watch Video

It wasn't until 2011 that sex abuse charges were filed against Sandusky while Corbett had since become governor. Sandusky was convicted on 45 counts of sex abuse in June 2012.

The charges sent shockwaves throughout Pennsylvania, as Penn State's president, two top officials, and legendary coach Joe Paterno all lost their jobs over the scandal.

"Why did it take 33 months to get Sandusky off the streets? Was the use of a grand jury the right decision? Why were there so few resources dedicated to the investigation? Were the best practices implemented?" the statement from Kane's office read.

"At the end of this investigation, we will know the answers to these questions and be able to tell the people of Pennsylvania the facts and give them answers that they deserve," the statement said.

Describing an interview Kane gave the New York Times, the Times said Kane suggested that Corbett did not want to upset voters or donors in the Penn State community before his gubernatorial run in 2009.

Corbett has denied those suggestions. His office did not immediately return calls for comment.

Kane's office preemptively fought back against the idea that the investigation is politically motivated. Kane, a Democrat, defeated the incumbent attorney general, Linda Kelly, a Republican in November 2011. Corbett is a Republican.

"The speculation that this is about politics is insane," a staff member in Kane's office told ABC News today. "You go anywhere in Pennsylvania and anywhere across the country and you'll find individuals asking, 'why did it take three years? Why was there a grand jury? Why make these kids talk to 30 different people about what happened?"

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Mind-meld brain power is best for steering spaceships

TURNS out two heads really are better than one. Two people have successfully steered a virtual spacecraft by combining the power of their thoughts - and their efforts were far more accurate than one person acting alone. One day groups of people hooked up to brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) might work together to control complex robotic and telepresence systems, maybe even in space.

A BCI system records the brain's electrical activity using EEG signals, which are detected with electrodes attached to the scalp. Machine-learning software learns to recognise the patterns generated by each user as they think of a certain concept, such as "left" or "right". BCIs have helped people with disabilities to steer a wheelchair, for example.

Researchers are discovering, however, that they get better results in some tasks by combining the signals from multiple BCI users. Until now, this "collaborative BCI" technique has been used in simple pattern-recognition tasks, but a team at the University of Essex in the UK wanted to test it more rigorously.

So they developed a simulator in which pairs of BCI users had to steer a craft towards the dead centre of a planet by thinking about one of eight directions that they could fly in, like using compass points. Brain signals representing the users' chosen direction, as interpreted by the machine-learning system, were merged in real time and the spacecraft followed that path.

The results, to be presented at an Intelligent User Interfaces conference in California in March, strongly favoured two-brain navigation. Simulation flights were 67 per cent accurate for a single user, but 90 per cent on target for two users. And when coping with sudden changes in the simulated planet's position, reaction times were halved, too. Combining signals eradicates the random noise that dogs EEG signals. "When you average signals from two people's brains, the noise cancels out a bit," says team member Riccardo Poli.

The technique can also compensate for a lapse in attention. "It is difficult to stay focused on the task at all times. So when a single user has momentary attention lapses, it matters. But when there are two users, a lapse by one will not have much effect, so you stay on target," Poli says.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena, California, has been observing the work while itself investigating BCI's potential for controlling planetary rovers, for example. But don't hold your breath, says JPL senior research scientist Adrian Stoica. "While potential uses for space applications exist, in terms of uses for planetary rover remote control, this is still a speculative idea," he says.

This article appeared in print under the headline "Two brains, one mind"

If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.

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Taiwan premier resigns over flagging economy

TAIPEI: Taiwanese Premier Sean Chen said Friday he has stepped down for health reasons, after the cabinet he heads came under fire for its poor handling of the economy.

"I have some health problems ... and I need to completely change my life and work style to reverse the situation," the 63-year-old finance expert told a press conference to announce his resignation.

"I believe that the economy will improve in the coming year. We have worked very hard on the planning for long-term issues and I hope everybody will continue to support the new team."

Deputy premier Jiang Yi-huah, 53, a scholar-turned-politician and a former interior minister, will take over his job, Chen said.

Chen's departure came as Taiwan's economy grew 1.25 percent in 2012 from a year ago at the slowest pace in three years due to shrinking exports.

Chen, who previously headed the Financial Supervisory Commission, the main industry regulator, had a tense term since taking office as premier in early 2012.

His cabinet frequently came under attacks over the sluggish economy and other controversial policies, with the opposition repeatedly demanding his resignation.

Last year, Chen survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote - only the second in Taiwan history - over what opposition lawmakers deemed as his cabinet's failure to curb rising unemployment and inflation.

Under Taiwan's political system the premier heads the cabinet and is appointed by the president.

- AFP/de

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X Games snowmobiler dies

By CNN Staff

updated 1:55 PM EST, Thu January 31, 2013

A photo of Caleb Moore's performance in the Snowmobile Freestyle Final during X Games Aspen 2013.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: Caleb Moore's brother also suffered an accident in the X Games


• Caleb Moore died a week after a snowmobile crash in the X Games


• The crash has raised new safety concerns about the games


• ESPN, which operates the X Games, says it will conduct a thorough review

(CNN) -- Snowmobiler Caleb Moore died Thursday, a week after a crash that has raised new safety concerns about the X Games. He was 25 years old.

"He will be truly missed and never forgotten," his family said in a statement.

"The family wishes to express their deep gratitude for all the prayers and support they have received from all the fans, friends and family around the world that Caleb has inspired. ... Arrangements for a celebration of life are being made and an announcement will be made in the coming days."

Moore, a freestyle snowmobiler, was attempting a backflip at the Winter X Games in Aspen, Colorado, when he couldn't rotate his machine enough to land properly. The skis dug into the lip of the slope, bringing the 450-pound snowmobile crashing down on him. The vehicle slammed into Moore's head and chest.

"We are deeply saddened by Caleb Moore's passing and our thoughts and prayers go out to his parents, Wade and Michelle, his brother, Colten, and the entire Moore family," ESPN, which organizes and televises the X Games, said in a statement. "He will be remembered for his natural passion for life and his deep love for his family and friends, and he will always be an inspiration to everyone he touched in the action sports community.

"As a result of this accident we will conduct a thorough review of this discipline and adopt any appropriate changes to future X Games."

The statement added that the X Games have long worked on safety issues and that nevertheless, "when the world's best compete at the highest level in any sport, risks remain. Caleb was a four-time X Games medalist attempting a move he has landed several times previously."

Colten Moore, 23, was also involved in an accident during Thursday's event. He was released from the hospital Saturday, according to his Facebook fan page.

Caleb Moore's Facebook page is carrying messages from fans. "R.I.P. Caleb," wrote Candi Clark-Hibbs, adding, "prayers to your family."

People we've lost in 2013: The lives they lived

CNN's Josh Levs, Brian Todd, Dugald McConnell, Christine Sever and Shawn Nottingham contributed to this report.

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Alaska Airlines plane lands safely after pilot passes out

Updated 3 a.m. EST

PORTLAND, Ore. An Alaska Airlines jetliner bound for Seattle made an emergency landing in Portland, Ore., Thursday night after the pilot lost consciousness, an airline spokesman said.

The co-pilot landed Flight 473 safely after declaring an emergency to get priority care for the pilot, spokesman Paul McElroy said. All of the airlines' pilots are trained to fly single-handedly.

The pilot lost consciousness "somewhere over Oregon," McElroy said, then later regained consciousness and left the cockpit. A doctor on board the flight tended to him in the cabin until the plane landed and was met by medical personnel on the runway.

The pilot, who was not identified, was taken to a hospital but there was no immediate word on his condition, McElroy said.

The Boeing 737-700, with 116 passengers and five crew members on board, left Los Angeles about 6:30 p.m. and was diverted to Portland, touching down there at about 9 p.m., reports CBS Portland affiliate KOIN-TV. It had been due to arrive in Seattle at 9:30 p.m.

McElroy says the pilot has been flying for Alaska for 28 years and was current on his six-month medical evaluation. The co-pilot is an 11-year Alaska Air veteran.

On Jan. 22, the co-pilot on an Alaska Airlines flight from Seattle to Las Vegas fainted briefly, and the pilot requested emergency landing priority to get prompt medical assistance for him.

"At this point, we do not believe there was a connection between the two incidents," McElvoy said.

Twenty passengers with a tight schedule for connecting flights were put on a Horizon Air shuttle flight to Seattle on Thursday night, the spokesman said.

A new pilot was dispatched to Portland to fly the remaining passengers to Seattle on board the same plane.

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Arias' Lawyer Shows Ex-Boyfriend's Lewd Photos

Accused murderer Jodi Arias was kept away from the Mormon friends of her lover Travis Alexander and their torrid sex affair was kept secret by Alexander, even as he sent lewd photos of himself to her online, according to court testimony today.

The testimony in Arias' trial for killing Alexander in 2008 was intended to bolster the defense's argument that she killed him in self defense, that Alexander was a sexual deviant who treated Arias as his "dirty little secret."

Arias' attorneys introduced as evidence photos that Alexander took of his penis and sent to Arias, part of a string of graphic messages and sexual phone calls the two engaged in while Alexander, an elder in the Mormon church, was supposed to be chaste.

Today's witness was the latest in a string called by the defense, including Alexander's former girlfriend Lisa Daidone, who told the court that Alexander had professed to be a virgin.

Daniel Freeman continued his testimony today, describing how he was a friend of both Arias and Alexander but that Alexander kept Arias distanced from his Mormon pals.

"Travis had made more friends at (the Mormon) ward, and had (Ultimate Fighting Championship) fight nights at his house many times, and Jodi was in town, but she wasn't there," Freeman said.

"There was that group of friends, them and Jodi, two different groups, and so Lisa [Daidone] and friends from church were there, but Jodi wasn't there," Freeman said.

Jodi Arias Murder Trial: Former Boyfriend Takes Stand Watch Video

Jodi Arias Murder Trial: Defense's First Day of Witnesses Watch Video

Alexander's behavior, the defense hopes to prove, shows that he mistreated Arias.

Arias, 32, is on trial for murdering Alexander, whom she dated for a year and continued to have a sexual relationship for a year after that. Her attorneys claim that Alexander was abusive and controlling toward Arias, and that she was forced to kill him.

Freeman described how he took a trip with his sister, Alexander, and Arias, and how Alexander had asked him to come along so that he and Arias "would not get physical."

"I don't know that I can say he didn't want to be alone with her, but he liked that when I was there, and my sister was there. They weren't as physical," Freeman said.

Freeman admitted that he had no idea Alexander and Arias had been having a sexual relationship the entire time they were together. He said Alexander never mentioned that to his friends.

In fact, Freeman noted that Alexander was considered to be a church elder when he baptized Arias into the Church of Latter-Day Saints. Both a church elder and a convert were expected to abide by the church's strict law of chastity, which banned any sexual relations outside of marriage.

"One thing people give up in this baptism process was sex," prosecutor Juan Martinez said. "Did you know she was having oral sex with Mr. Alexander at the time of her baptism? Would that be an insincere baptism?"

"She would not be ready to be baptized in that case," Freeman said.

"You were asked about Miss Arias, whether she was worthy of baptism if she was performing oral sex, but what about the elder receiving oral sex?" defense attorney Kirk Nurmi said.

"They would not be worthy of performing that ordinance at that time until they had gone through repentance," Freeman said. "They would go to a discipline council and could face excommunication or a probation period or have their priesthood removed."

Freeman said that Alexander never confessed to having a sexual relationship with Arias.

Freeman's testimony came on the third day of the defense's attempt to paint Alexander as a controlling, sex-obsessed liar who was cruel to Arias. Other witnesses have said that Alexander cheated on other women he dated with Arias, and lied to his friends and family about their relationship.

The defense also had Freeman point out that Alexander was strong and fit. They are expected to conclude that Alexander was physically threatening Arias when she killed him.

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Keep rainforests – they drive the planet's winds

WHAT creates the wind? Anyone will tell you that temperature differences are key. Hot air rises and is replaced by cooler air surging in beneath. Except that maybe the explanation found in every textbook is too simple.

What if, instead, the winds that drive atmospheric circulation are mainly created by the condensation of moisture? Much of this occurs over rainforests as water evaporates or is transpired from the trees. The physicists and foresters behind this controversial idea say that if we chop down the forests, we will lose the winds - and the rains they bring with them.

The physical process itself is not in dispute. Whenever water vapour condenses to form droplets, its volume is reduced, lowering the pressure. Air moves in, creating wind.

Climate scientists have always regarded this as a trivial effect. Criticism has been heaped on the theory since it was first aired four years ago. "This is not a mysterious effect. It is small and included in some atmospheric models," says Isaac Held of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey.

But physicist Anastassia Makarieva of St Petersburg University in Russia says the pressure gradients it would create "have never received a theoretical investigation". Her calculations suggest that the condensation of billions of litres of water above giant forests produces a giant effect (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, doi.org/kbx).

Co-author Douglas Sheil at Southern Cross University in Lismore, Australia, says critics have yet to explain why they think Makarieva is wrong. Until they do, he said, "this looks like a powerful mechanism that governs weather patterns round the world".

Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology, an author of the standard textbook Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, is encouraging. "The process they describe is physically correct," she said. "The main question is its relative magnitude compared with other processes." She thinks it could explain why climate models do not get monsoons and hurricanes right.

Nobody doubts that forests recycle rain through evaporation and transpiration. But this is the first suggestion that this recycling process also whips up the winds that suck moist ocean air across continents.

The implications are huge. "In standard theories, if we lose forests the rainfall in the continental interiors generally declines by 10 to 30 per cent. In our theory, it is likely to decline by 90 per cent or more," says Sheil.

But it is not all bad news. If lost forests are replanted, the theory suggests, then the winds they generate could return rain to even the most arid lands. After all, the Sahara was lush swampland 6000 years ago.

If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.

All comments should respect the New Scientist House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please use the "Report" link in that comment to report it to us.

If you are having a technical problem posting a comment, please contact technical support.

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Four arrested for suspected thefts from the elderly

SINGAPORE: Police have arrested four men suspected of stealing from the elderly.

On January 10, police received reports of theft in some housing estates by men who approached the victims and offered to pray in their residences.

The suspects targeted elderly victims who were alone at home during the day.

The four suspects, aged between 21 and 55 years, were arrested along Syed Alwi Road on Thursday.

Four men will be charged in court on Friday.

- CNA/de

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5 subjects Hagel should expect at his hearing

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military and government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military and government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military and government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

Chuck Hagel's military, government career

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Chuck Hagel testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday


• The former senator split with the GOP over the war in Iraq


• Some feel Hagel is too cool to Israel, not hard enough on Iran


• He supported the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy

(CNN) -- When the Senate Armed Services Committee is gaveled into session Thursday, Chuck Hagel is likely to face some sharp questions from many of his old colleagues.

If confirmed as secretary of defense, the one-time infantry sergeant and twice-wounded Vietnam veteran would be the first former enlisted man to lead the Pentagon. The former Republican senator from Nebraska gets his chance to answer questions Thursday morning during his confirmation hearing, and here are five subjects where he can expect them:

1. Afghanistan

If confirmed, Hagel will be tasked with closing out the longest war in U.S. history, one that has now lasted more than 11 years. He opposed President Barack Obama's decision to send another 30,000 troops into the conflict in 2009, telling the National Journal, "I think we're marking time as we slaughter more young people." The Obama administration now plans to pull combat troops out of Afghanistan by 2014, replacing them with a training mission to advise Afghan forces, steps Hagel will oversee if confirmed.

2. Gays and women in the military

As a senator, Hagel supported the "don't ask, don't tell" policy that kept gays and lesbians from serving openly in the U.S. military. He told The New York Times in 1999, "The U.S. armed forces aren't some social experiment." And the nominee's opponents have seized on his 1998 criticism of a Clinton administration State Department nominee as being "openly, aggressively gay," a remark for which Hagel apologized in December.

Now he's been asked to lead a department that has allowed gays and lesbians since 2011. And he'll be left to implement the plans outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced last week to open front-line combat units to women, which allow the generals and admirals to ask for exemptions for certain posts. As defense secretary, Hagel would have to make the final call on those requests.

3. The Big One

Hagel is among the backers of the "Global Zero" movement, which has called for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons under a worldwide regime of inspections. He was a co-author of a 2011 study by the group that called for reducing the current U.S. arsenal of about 5,000 warheads and bombs to about 900, a force Global Zero says would be enough to deter potential attackers while reducing the risk of proliferation or nuclear terrorism.

That position has raised some eyebrows, since Hagel would be the steward of that American arsenal if confirmed. In a recent statement, Hagel's co-authors say their views and his "are in the U.S. national security interest and squarely in the mainstream," while keeping nuclear stockpiles at Cold War levels aren't. And he's not the only high-profile figure to ultimately endorse the idea of a world without the bomb: Obama held out the same hope in 2009, as have presidents dating back to Ronald Reagan.

4. Cutting the Pentagon

Within weeks of taking office, Hagel could be forced to implement steep cuts in the Pentagon budget as a result of "sequestration," the automatic spending cuts set up in the deal that ended the 2011 standoff over the federal debt ceiling. At the beginning of the year, Congress voted to put off those cuts for two months.

Panetta has called those across-the-board cuts of about 9.4% "potentially devastating" and urged Congress to find another way to reduce spending. But Hagel has called the defense budget "bloated" and said the Pentagon "needs to be pared down." Look for questions about how Hagel would wield that knife.

5. The Middle East: Iraq, Iran and Israel

This has been the biggest source of criticism for Hagel since Obama picked him to replace Leon Panetta in December and the rawest nerve for the Republicans with whom Hagel broke over the war in Iraq.

Hagel supported the U.S. invasion in 2003. But by 2007, he had come to believe it was a "blunder" and joined Democrats who tried to force the Bush administration to withdraw American troops. "He has long severed his ties with the Republican party," Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, told CNN's "State of the Union."

Republicans have accused him of being too cool to Israel, the leading U.S. ally in the Middle East, and too soft on Iran. Hagel has called for direct talks with the Islamic republic, which Western powers suspect is trying to develop a nuclear bomb, and he complained in 2007 that the "Jewish lobby" in Washington scared lawmakers away from supporting a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

But others have rallied around him, including his friend Rabbi Aryeh Azriel of Temple Israel in Omaha, Nebraska. Azriel said Hagel is "definitely a friend of Israel" and "has wonderful, fresh ideas to try to re-engage the discussion about the Middle East."

An Obama administration official working on the senator's confirmation hearing told CNN that Hagel will testify that he believes Iran is a state sponsor of terror; he supports the president's sanctions strategy against Iran and believes all options should be on the table including the military option.

CNN Pentagon Correspondent Chris Lawrence contributed to this report.

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N.Y. Times: China hacked our computers for past four months

BEIJING The New York Times says Chinese hackers repeatedly penetrated its computer networks over the past four months, stealing reporters' passwords and hunting for files on an investigation into the wealth amassed by the family of one of China's leaders.

In a report released late Wednesday, the Times said security experts hired to plug the breach tracked the attacks to China, in some cases computers identified with the Chinese military.

The newspaper reports that, "After surreptitiously tracking the intruders to study their movements and help erect better defenses to block them, The Times and computer security experts have expelled the attackers and kept them from breaking back in."

The attacks coincided with a Times investigation into how the family and relatives of Premier Wen Jiabao built a fortune worth more than $2 billion. The report says no Times customer data was compromised but that the passwords for all employees were stolen.

The newspaper adds, "The hackers tried to cloak the source of the attacks on The Times by first penetrating computers at United States universities and routing the attacks through them, said computer security experts at Mandiant, the company hired by The Times. This matches the subterfuge used in many other attacks that Mandiant has tracked to China."

Security experts say China carries out a widespread cyber-spying operation to steal secrets and intimidate critics.

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No Device Eliminates Concussion Risk, Experts Say

As the long-term consequences of concussions become clearer, a cottage industry has popped up to sell athletes and worried parents products designed to mitigate risks of concussions that even helmets cannot prevent.

Despite the bold claims of some companies, however, many experts say the Holy Grail in contact sports -- a device that prevents concussions -- simply does not exist. Indeed, experts say, there is no proof that any current device significantly reduces the risk of concussions beyond the protections already provided by helmets.

"Nightline" found several products for sale online that aim to reduce the risk of concussions or even alert parents and coaches when a kid has supposedly taken a concussion-level hit. The claims the manufacturers make are often breathtakingly reassuring.

Concern about the risk of concussion is mounting at every level of the gridiron from the NFL to colleges and even high schools. Concussions are the most common injury among high school football players.

Jennifer Branin, whose son Tyler Branin is one of the stars of the Woodbridge Warriors high school football team in Irvine, Calif., said "it was scary" the first time he had a concussion.

"He had lost his balance on the field," she said. "He got up and tried to continue, but couldn't keep his balance."

Junior Seau Had Brain Disease, Researchers Say Watch Video

She said the effects of the concussion lingered, causing Tyler to miss a week of school and football practice. Even months later, he complained of difficulty concentrating in class.

Parents such as Jennifer Branin, who is president of the team's booster club, and her husband, Andy Branin, a former college football player himself, were looking for a way to support their son's desire to play football while also keeping him safe.

"He wants to play and, as a mom, you may want to put bubble-wrap around them and protect them forever, but that's not going to happen," she said.

So Jennifer Branin decided to do something. She raised money to buy the team helmet inserts by Unequal Technologies for added protection.

Unequal Technologies, one of the highest profile players in this new market, described its product explicitly on the box as "Concussion Reduction Technology," or "CRT." It is a strip of composite material including bullet-proof Kevlar that is designed to stick inside the helmet as a liner to the existing helmet pads.

Unequal Technologies uses its material in products ranging from padded sleeves to shin guards. The company counts NFL players and X-Games athletes among its fans.

On board as paid spokesmen are Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick and James Harrison, a linebacker for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Harrison is one of the hardest-hitting guys in the NFL and said he uses Unequal Technology's liners in his helmet.

"I don't know what it's made of but it works," Harrison says in one of Unequal's promotional videos. "I really don't feel like I'm taking a risk."

Vick wasn't wearing the CRT product when he suffered a season-ending concussion in November, but he has since promised that he will be wearing it when he returns to the field next season.

Rob Vito, founder and CEO of the Kennett Square, Pa.-based company, said he worked with scientists to create a military-grade composite material that can help protect athletes from all kinds of injuries from head to toe.

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The 10,000-year bender: Why humans love a tipple

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Greater community support helps ex-offenders

SINGAPORE: Greater community support for ex-offenders has paid off -- with overall fewer ex-inmates imprisoned for re-offending -- according to the Singapore Prison Service's annual report card.

However, drug offenders who were released from Drug Rehabilitation Centres recorded a higher percentage of re-offending.

For some inmates who have no family support, they might not have a job or a home to return to after they are released.

Chavez Ong, a specialist in correctional rehabilitation with the Singapore Prison Service, said: "We actually work together with our partners, like the HDB -- we've been liasing with them to look into the (housing) issue.

"We also look into halfway houses for placement. And we also try to reach out to their families again, because for us, family involvement during the rehabilitation process is one of the very crucial factors."

The greater community support for ex-prisoners has paid off. The Singapore Prison Service said that the overall recidivism rate -- which is the rate at which prisoners re-offend and return to jail within two years of release -- fell to 23.6 per cent for those released in 2010, down from 26.7 per cent for those who were released in 2009.

On average, about 9,000 local inmates are released from prison each year. In 1998, the recidivism rate was 44.4 per cent, but in recent years it has hovered around 26 to 27 per cent.

About 20 per cent more employers have joined the effort to hire ex-offenders, which means more inmates found jobs before they were released.

The number of employers who are part of the Singapore Corporation of Rehabilitative Enterprises now stands at 3,457, compared with 2,872 in 2011, and 2,459 in 2010. Most of the jobs are in manufacturing, logistics, and food & beverage.

For a third year running, more inmates found jobs before they were released.

More volunteers have also joined the community outreach programme to support the families of these inmates. The programme now has 390 registered and trained volunteers -- an increase of 69 per cent from 2011.

But for drug offenders, a higher number re-offended. The recidivism rate for those released from the drug rehabilitation centres in 2010 was 27.5 per cent -- slightly higher than the 27.1 per cent of 2009.

To tackle this, repeat drug offenders at higher risk of re-offending must now go through a more robust mandatory supervision programme upon their release.

Besides urine tests and electronic monitoring, there will also be compulsory case work and counselling.

Rubiana Shamsul, a reintegration officer with the Singapore Prison Service, said: "So basically these offenders will actually face challenges when they go back to their old neighbourhood and they would be facing their old circle of friends and that's where the temptation would come in. So from there, we're trying to curb this by having our regular counselling sessions.

"Another challenge they would be facing is finding gainful employment -- we'd like to motivate them to have pro-social activities in their leisure time, so they don't have the temptation to go back to doing what they were doing before."

About 1,000 drug offenders are expected to be supervised this way in 2013 and 2014.

-CNA/ac

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Child hostage drama in Ala. after gunman kills school bus driver

MIDLAND CITY, Ala. An unidentified man boarded a school bus, shot the driver several times, then escaped with a 6-year-old passenger, prompting an hours-long standoff with police that remained unresolved early Wednesday.

The Dale County Sheriff says the man shot the driver in Midland City on Tuesday after he refused to let the child off the bus. The driver later died of his wounds. His identity wasn't released.

The shooter took the child to an area behind a nearby church, and police were negotiating with him, authorities said.

Midland City police would not comment, and a call to the Dale City Sheriff's office was not answered Tuesday.

Authorities from multiple agencies were on the scene and nearby residents were evacuated from their homes as a precautionary measure, said Rachel David, a spokeswoman for the police department in the nearby town of Dothan.

"Authorities also confirmed the presence of a child at the scene but are giving no further information at this time," David said in a news release late Tuesday.

CBS Dothan, Ala. affiliate WTVY-TV reports the hostage is male and was being held in a storm shelter at the alleged gunman's home.

The station says the FBI has been called in, and area schools have cancelled Wednesday classes.

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Clinton Talks 2016, Stands by Benghazi Testimony

In her final television interview as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton told ABC's Cynthia McFadden that she is "flattered and honored" at the intense interest in whether she might run for president in 2016.

But Clinton maintained that right now she's "not focused" on a presidential campaign; instead she said she wants to return to a "normal" life when she steps down from office on Friday.

Watch Cynthia McFadden's full interview with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on "Nightline" tonight at 12:35 a.m. ET

Clinton's first order of business, she said, will be sleep.

"I hope I get to sleep in," she told McFadden with a laugh. "It will be the first time in many years. I have no office to go to, no schedule to keep, no work to do. That will probably last a few days then I will be up and going with my new projects," she said.

"I have been working or attending school full-time since I was 13. This is going to be new for me. I don't know how I'm going to react to it, to be honest."

PHOTOS: Hillary Clinton Through the Years: From Wellesley to the White House, and Beyond

Clinton has had no trouble articulating her reaction to what has arguably been the darkest chapter of her tenure as Secretary of State: the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, in which four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens, were killed.

Hillary's Next Chapter: On Family and Future Watch Video

Secretary Clinton had a heated exchange with Republican Senator Ron Johnson during her five hours of testimony before Congress about the attack last week. Johnson accused the administration of misleading the American people about the cause of the attack, when UN Ambassador Susan Rice, on Sunday political talk shows, blamed it on protesters.

Clinton snapped back at Johnson, "Four Americans are dead. What difference does it make?" For that, she has been sharply criticized by some conservatives.

Clinton said she "absolutely" stands by her response to Johnson, maintaining that the administration has been transparent with the information it knew, when it was available. Clinton said partisan politics have no place in a response to a terrorist attack against Americans.

"I believe that we should in public life, whether you're in the administration or the Congress, de-politicize crisis and work together to figure out what happened, what we can do to prevent it and then put into place both the institutional changes and the budgetary changes that are necessary, " she said.

"When someone tries to put into a partisan lens, when they focus not on the fact that we have such a terrible event happening with four dead Americans but instead what did somebody say on a Sunday morning talk show? That to me is not in keeping with the seriousness of the issue and the obligation we all have as public servants"

FULL TRANSCRIPT: Sec. of State Hillary Clinton's "Nightline" Interview

Asked about her health, Clinton said her recent illness, concussion and blood clot were all a surprise.

"When I got sick and fainted and hit my head I was so surprised, and I thought I would just get up and go to work. And thankfully I had very good medical care and doctors who said, 'No we'd better do an MRI, we'd better do this, we'd better do that,'" she said, calling herself "lucky."

"I know now how split second beset by a virus and dehydrated, what it can do to you."

Though she confirmed she is wearing special glasses to help with double vision, a lingering issue following her illness, Clinton said that she expects to be fully recovered and operating at "full speed" soon.

The Secretary told McFadden that if she does decide to run, she would have "no problem" making her health records public.

"Of course, that goes with the territory," she said.

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Iran launches monkey into space

Lisa Grossman, physical sciences reporter

Last summer, the Iranian Space Agency announced their plan to send a monkey into space - and now they've apparently done it.

According to Iranian state-run television, a press release on the space agency's website, and photos of the event, Iran sent a live rhesus monkey into sub-orbital space aboard a small rocket called Pishgam, or Pioneer. There's even a video posted on YouTube that appears to be of the launch (though New Scientist could not confirm its authenticity).

The report has not been confirmed independently, however, and the US air force's North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has not reported seeing any missile launches from Iran.

But independent observers say the launch looks legitimate.

"Really, I see no reason not to take their word for it," says Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who also keeps a log of space launches. He says he's convinced by the photos and discussions he's had with several knowledgeable source in online forums.

In photos released on the Iranian Space Agency's website, the rocket looks like the same kind the agency has launched before, but with a larger nose cone designed to fit a small chamber that can support life. Images also showed a live rhesus monkey strapped to a small seat.

The reports say the rocket went straight up 120 kilometres, which McDowell says qualifies as outer space, but not high enough to reach orbit, and came back down with a parachute.

It's unclear exactly when the launch took place. The press release says that the launch happened on the birthday of Mohammed the Prophet, which is celebrated by Shiites on 29 January, but was celebrated last week elsewhere in the world.

Some countries worry that Iranian rockets capable of carrying animals or people could also carry weapons. Iran has denied any military intention.

"This is not a scary thing because this is not a big new rocket that could hit America or anything like that," McDowell says. "There's nothing military to this. It's purely for propaganda. Nevertheless, it advances their science and their technology by being able to do it."

Iran says the launch is a first step towards sending humans into space, which they intend to do in the next 5 to 8 years. To do that, McDowell says, they'll need to build a larger rocket. The country currently has a vehicle called Safir that has successfully put satellites in orbit, and is developing a more powerful launcher called Simorgh.

The next step will probably be to either launch Safir to carry a human to sub-orbital space, or an unmanned Simorgh flight into orbit to make sure mission controllers can return it to the ground safely.

"They don't want to repeat what the Soviets did" in 1957, McDowell says, "which is put a living being in orbit before you figure out how to get it back."

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North Korea threatens "merciless" retaliation on South

SEOUL: North Korea on Tuesday vowed "merciless" retaliation against the South for its support of UN sanctions, as Seoul urged Pyongyang to step back from a widely expected nuclear test.

The perennially tense situation on the Korean peninsula has been stretched to its limit in the past week, with almost daily threats from the North that it is preparing to conduct a nuclear test as a riposte to the expanded sanctions.

A lengthy commentary published on Tuesday by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reiterated that the sanctions resolution passed by the UN Security Council was tantamount to a "declaration of war".

Noting what it called the South's "despicable" support for the resolution, KCNA said it was an act of gross provocation that would not go unanswered.

"The provokers will meet only merciless retaliatory blows," it said.

The commentary made no specific mention of the nuclear test that the North's top military body had explicitly signalled in a statement carried by KCNA last week.

The National Defence Commission had said the test was aimed at "arch-enemy" the United States, which had proposed the UN resolution penalising Pyongyang for a banned rocket launch in December.

In Seoul, the foreign ministry on Tuesday noted that the UN resolution had warned of further "significant action" against the North it it proceeds with another test.

"The government once again strongly urges North Korea to pay heed to the continued warnings from the international community and not push ahead with any further provocations, including a nuclear test," spokesman Cho Tai-Young said.

"I don't really understand why North Korea is sticking to an act that threatens security in the region at a time when its people are struggling from a lack of food," Cho said.

South Korean defence officials have said they believe the North is capable of conducting a nuclear test "any time" and announced on Tuesday the creation of a special task force to monitor the site of its two previous tests in 2006 and 2009.

The task force was set up by the South's Joint Chiefs of Staff and is studying data and intelligence being collected by state institutions and independent experts, defence ministry spokesman Kim Min-Seok told reporters.

The state-run Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources has set up a situation room to receive and process seismic information that might indicate when a test is conducted, he added.

The institute detected an "artificial earthquake" about 40 seconds after the North's second nuclear test in 2009.

- AFP/al

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Thick smog cloaks Beijing again

BEIJING Dangerously high pollution levels shrouded Beijing in smog Tuesday for the second time in about two weeks, forcing airlines to cancel flights because of poor visibility and prompting the city government to warn residents to stay indoors.

The outlines of buildings in the capital receded into a white mist as pedestrians donned face masks to guard against the thick, caustic air.

The U.S. Embassy reported a level of PM2.5 -- one of the worst pollutants -- at 526 micrograms per cubic meter, or "beyond index," and more than 20 times higher than World Health Organization safety levels over a 24-hour period.

The Beijing city government advised residents to stay indoors as much as possible because the pollution was "severe." It said that, because there was no wind, the smog probably would not dissipate quickly.

Visibility was less than 109 yards in some areas of eastern China, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. Air China cancelled 14 domestic flights in or out of the Beijing airport, and an airport in the eastern city of Qingdao was closed, cancelling 20 flights.

The disruptions come in the first week of the country's peak, six-week period for travel, linked to the Feb. 10 Lunar New Year. Every year, China's transport system bursts at the seams as tens of millions of people travel for the holiday, in the world's largest seasonal migration of people.

Celebrity real estate developer Pan Shiyi, who has previously pushed for cities to publish more detailed air quality data, called Tuesday for a "Clean Air Act" and said he would use his status as a delegate to the National People's Congress to propose such legislation.

In less than three hours, his post was forwarded more than 2,300 times and received 14,184 votes, with 99.1 percent in favor.

Beijing also had exceptionally high pollution two weeks ago, with the U.S. Embassy readings of PM2.5 reaching as high as 886 micrograms per cubic meter.

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US Mom Missing in Turkey Took Side Trips

Sarai Sierra, the New York mother who disappeared in Turkey while on a solo trip, took several side excursions out of the country, but stayed in contact with her family the entire time, a family friend told ABC News.

Turkish media reported today that police were trying to establish why Sierra visited Amsterdam and Munich. Police were also trying to establish the identity of a man Sierra, 33, was chatting with on the Internet, according to local media.

Rachel Norman, a family friend, said the man was a group tour guide from the Netherlands and said Sierra stayed in regular touch with her family in New York.

Steven Sierra, Sarai's husband, and David Jimenez, her brother, arrived in Istanbul today to aid in the search.

The men have been in contact with officials from the U.S. consulate in the country and plan to meet with them as soon as they open on Tuesday, Norman said.

After that, she said Sierra and Jimenez would meet with Turkish officials to discuss plans and search efforts.

Family of Sarai Sierra|AP Photo

NYC Woman Goes Missing While Traveling In Turkey Watch Video

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Sarai Sierra was supposed to fly back to the United States on Jan. 22, but she never showed up for her flight home.

Her two boys, ages 11 and 9, have not been told their mother is missing.

Sierra, an avid photographer, left New York on Jan. 7. It was her first overseas trip, and she decided to go ahead after a friend had to cancel, her family said.

"It was her first time outside of the United States, and every day while she was there she pretty much kept in contact with us, letting us know what she was up to, where she was going, whether it be through texting or whether it be through video chat, she was touching base with us," Steven Sierra told ABC News before he departed for Istanbul.

But when it came time to pick her up from Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, Sierra wasn't on board her scheduled flight.

Steven Sierra called United Airlines and was told his wife had never boarded the flight home.

Further investigation revealed she had left her passport, clothes, phone chargers and medical cards in her room at a hostel in Beyoglu, Turkey, he said.

The family is suspicious and said it is completely out of character for the happily married mother, who met her husband in church youth group, to disappear.

The U.S. Embassy in Turkey and the Turkish National Police are involved in the investigation, WABC-TV reported.

"They've been keeping us posted, from my understanding they've been looking into hospitals and sending out word to police stations over there," Steven Sierra said. "Maybe she's, you know, locked up, so they are doing what they can."

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Is Obama about to blow his climate credentials?

The US president could be poised to approve the doubling of imports of tar sands oil, one of the filthiest fuels on Earth

FACED with rising anger from environmentalists last year over his plans for a transcontinental pipeline to deliver treacly Canadian tar sands to Texas oil refineries on the Gulf of Mexico, the CEO of TransCanada, Russ Girling, expressed surprise. After all, his company had laid 300,000 kilometres of such pipes across North America. "The pipeline is routine. Something we do every day," he told Canadian journalists.

But that's the point. It is routine. The oil industry does do it every day. And if it carries on, it will wreck the world.

We need not rely on climate-changing fossil fuels. Alternative energy technologies are available. But fossil fuels, and the pipelines and other 20th-century infrastructure that underpin them, have created what John Schellnhuber, director of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, describes in a new paper as "lock-in dominance" (PNAS, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1219791110). Even though we know how harmful it is, the "largest business on Earth" has ossified and is proving immovable, he says.

The question is how to break the lock and let in alternatives. Schellnhuber, a wily and worldly climate scientist, has an idea, to which I will return. But first the tar-sands pipeline, known as Keystone XL in the parlance of outsize clothing. Proponents say it would create jobs and improve US energy security. But for environmentalists in the US, the decision - due any time - on whether it should go ahead is a touchstone for Barack Obama's willingness to confront climate change in his second term.

Superficially, Keystone XL doesn't look like a huge deal. Since 2010, there has been a cross-border pipe bringing oil from tar sands in northern Alberta to the US Midwest. But this second link would double capacity and deliver oil to the refineries of the Gulf for global export. It looks like the key to a planned doubling of output from one of the world's largest deposits of one of the world's dirtiest fuels. And because the pipe would cross the US border, it requires state department and presidential sign-off.

Environmentalists are up in arms. They fear leaks. No matter what its sponsors suggest, this is no ordinary pipeline. The tar-sands oil - essentially diluted bitumen - is more acidic than regular oil and contains more sediment and moves at higher pressures. Critics say it risks corroding and grinding away the insides of the pipes. The US National Academy of Sciences has just begun a study on this, but its findings will probably be too late to influence Obama.

If there is a leak, clean-up will be difficult, as shown by the messy, protracted and acrimonious attempt to cleanse the Kalamazoo river in Michigan after tar-sands oil oozed into it in 2010.

To make matters worse, the pipeline would cross almost the entire length of the Ogallala aquifer, one of the world's largest underground water reserves, from South Dakota to Texas. Ogallala is a lifeline for the dust-bowl states of the Midwest. While TransCanada has agreed to bypass the ecologically important Sand Hills of Nebraska, where the water table is only 6 metres below the surface in places, a big unseen spill could still be disastrous.

Climate change is still the biggest deal. Extracting and processing tar sands creates a carbon footprint three times that of conventional crude. Obama would rightly lose all environmental credibility if he were to approve a scheme to double his country's imports of this fossil-fuel basket case. Yet he may do it. Why? Because of fossil-fuel lock-in. Changing course is hard. Really hard.

Part of the reason for the lock-in is the vast infrastructure dedicated to sustaining the supply of coal, oil and gas. There is no better symbol of that than a new pipeline. Partly it is political. Nobody has more political muscle than the fossil fuel industry, especially in Washington. And partly it is commercial. As Schellnhuber puts it: "Heavy investments in fossil fuels have led to big profits for shareholders, which in turn leads to greater investments in technologies that have proven to be profitable."

The result is domination by an outdated energy system that stifles alternatives. The potential for a renewable energy revolution is often compared to that of the IT revolution 30 years ago. But IT had little to fight except armies of clerks. Schellnhuber compares this lock-in to the synapses of an ageing human brain so exposed to repetitious thought that it "becomes addicted to specific observations and impressions to the exclusion of alternatives". Or, as Girling puts it, new pipelines become "routine".

What might free us from this addiction? With politicians weak, an obvious answer is to hold companies more financially accountable for environmental damage, including climate change. But Schellnhuber says this won't be enough unless individual shareholders become personally liable, too.

Here, he says, the problem is the public limited company (PLC), or publicly traded company in the US, which insulates shareholders from the consequences of decisions taken in their name. Even if their company goes bankrupt with huge debts, all they lose is the value of their shares. The PLC was invented to promote risk-taking in business. But it can also be an environmental menace, massively reducing incentives for industries to clean up their acts.

"If shareholders were held liable," he says, "then next time they might consider the risk before investing or reinvesting." More importantly, it could prevent us being locked into 20th century technologies that are quite incapable of solving 21st century problems. Fat chance, many might say. But just maybe Keystone XL and its uncanny ability to draw global attention will help catalyse growing anger at the environmental immunity of corporate shareholders.

Fred Pearce is a consultant on environmental issues for New Scientist

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